If you are serious about making racing pay you should be betting for value.
There should only be two reasons why you are betting on the horses and they are:
1/ To have fun and enjoy the sport
2/ To make money (or at least not to lose)
In order to make money investing in horse racing the single most important thing you must do is bet for value.
You should be looking for horses that look ‘Overpriced’
It’s not the ‘Buzz’ of winning short-term that should get you excited but the expectation of building your bankroll in a steady and organised structure.
The Math is important.
Ok. So you have a really respectable strike rate of about 30%. That is a pretty impressive wine rate and not easy to achieve.
The reality though, is that even with a strike rate as good as this, you are unlikely to be a long-term winner !
Why ?
Because unless you are regularly backing winners with a price of at least 3/1 and higher you will struggle to make a profit.
That changes everything or at least it should.
We are not saying that you should not back shorter-priced horses. What we do suggest though is that you monitor your win rates closely in order to find any potential leaks in your strategy
By utilizing the TrackMate bankroll management and bet tracking software you can track your profit and loss, strike rates and win rates as well as your ROI.
These stats are so important to your success and should be used religiously in order to maintain an accurate record of your bets and returns.
It’s better to miss a winner than back a loser !
Remember. You should be betting for value.
It is very tempting to back the really well-rated horses regardless of price. They just look so good !
But before you back that juicy-looking 2/1 favourite you need to know if it is a long term profitable play?
What is your strike rate with horses in this price range?
Is it high enough to warrant an investment or is it best to just let it run?
By monitoring your ROI and win rates you will over time learn your most profitable angles and price ranges.
So what should you be looking for when you are making your selections ?
There are a few criteria that you should be looking for when making your selections.
- Well rated horses – Use TrackMate ratings to find well-rated horses
- Choose well-rated races. – Try to select horses in races with plenty of form on offer
- Try to avoid ‘Dodgy’ races – Races such as Amateur jockey races should be avoided
- Look for horses with all the race factors in their favour – Does your selection act under the prevailing conditions?
Once you have made your list of selections we suggest you then check the prices on a site such as oddschecker or your betting exchange of choice.
This is your opportunity to thin your list based on ‘VALUE’
Is your 6/4 favourite really worth an investment or do you just let it run?
Remember you need a very high strike rate to even have a chance of breaking even by backing 6/4 shots !
We suggest that you try to make as many of your selections as possible Win/Place bets. You should aim for a minimum price of approx evs (2.0) as a target for your place bet and the best price you can achieve in the win market if you can achieve your place bet target.
Betting for Value – Back to Win and Place for maximum profits
The best way to profit from horse racing is to back your value selections to both Win and Place and preferably with a betting exchange to achieve the best prices available.
There is nothing more frustrating than seeing your horses just getting beaten time after time so why not try to profit from these situations?
Horse racing is after all not an exact science and we are after all dealing with animals!
The margins between winning and losing are very often very small and you can often miss out by the smallest of margins. In these situations, we firmly believe that the way to combat this is to back as many of our selections with a minimum place price requirement.
By betting this way and as long as your selections have a fairly good strike rate you will, more than often at least cover your win bet with the place bet.
Very often, although small in terms of overall profit, the place side of the bet will be profitable in its own right and long term profits are very achievable just from the Place “savers”.
Over time, this method will almost inevitably result in shorter losing streaks and steady long term profits.
Use the extra place markets to reduce variance.
We strongly suggest that you use a betting exchange for your horse racing betting. You are almost guaranteed to achieve much better value on your selections than you would with a bookmaker.
One of the benefits of the exchanges is the ability to bet on your selections to place only.
Very often you will find horses that can be backed at very good prices in the place market and we strongly suggest that you should be backing your horses to both win and place.
Depending upon your level of “tolerance” to losing streaks it is a good idea to sometimes take a look at the extra place markets.
The exchanges will usually have an extra places market which gives you the ability to cover your win bets with an extra place on offer.
For example, a 10 runner race would normally pay 3 places. Very often there will be a 4 place market giving you the opportunity to cover your win bet with even less long-term risk.
Treat your Place bets as full bets.
When backing a horse to win and place we like to treat the place bet as a full bet rather than part of an E/W bet.
So for example.
You are currently staking £10 per ‘point’ on your selections on the betting exchange.
Your selection is 6.0 (5/1) for the win and 2.2 (5/4) to place.
You should back this selection £10 to win and £10 to place which is ‘2 points’
If you are backing to win only you should be staking at 1% of current bankroll or 1 point.
We strongly suggest that you have a bankroll of at least 100 points (bets) but preferably at least 200.
A 200 point kitty will give you a bankroll of 100 win/place bets and should be comfortable with a good strategy and selection process.
A more cautious approach to win/place staking.
There is a more cautious approach to this form of betting. Remember you should always be betting for value.
This method places more of your stake in the place market than the win market and the inevitable higher place strike rate becomes more profitable.
The most common way to split these stakes are 60/40 – 70/30 – 80/20
This approach is exactly the same as the straight win/place method but uses a slightly more cautious approach to the staking.
When backing your value selections you should be looking for horses with prices from about 4/1 and higher. These selections will normally have a place price in the 1.8-2.0 + range.
You will invariably get many more selections that place than win and you should stake accordingly.
This will reduce your losing streaks and increase returns on your placed selections.
When betting for value your aim should always be to keep losses to the minimum. By making your place bets as profitable as possible you will see long term growth in your bankroll.
For example:
Instead of staking £10 win and £10 place, you would stake £12 to place and £8 to win.
The place side of these bets will win more often than the win side of the bet.
This method will improve your place returns but slightly decrease your win returns.
An even more cautious approach to your staking would be to use just one point per bet and ‘split’ the stake.
So, when staking 1% of your total bankroll per bet you would just split the stakes as above.
If your bankroll is £1000 and your stake is 1% or £10 you can split the £10 stake into
£5 win and £5 place
£4 win and £6 place
£3 win and £7 place.
This will obviously reduce the returns and increase the time it takes to grow your kitty but will be much easier to ‘handle’ the inevitable losing streaks you will encounter.
Does it really matter how long it takes to grow your bankroll?
The secret to enjoying your betting is comfort. You cannot and will not win if you are worried or stressed about your bankroll.
Only bet what you are fully prepared to lose (all of it!)
Stake your bets in such a way that losing runs are easy to handle and comfortable in terms of losses.