BE CAREFUL !

You may have read my previous post When seasons change. If not, it might be worth having a look as it is highly relevant to today’s post.

This is a funny time of year and one of the times in a season to be very cautious with your investments.

There are now a huge amount of horses that are starting their new flat turf racing campaigns and have no recent form.

They are predominantly summer horses and have been trained specifically to run in the summer on turf.

Many have not raced for the best part of six months and many will need the race to get to full race fitness, equally, others are coming to the end of both the winter all-weather racing and the National Hunt jumps racing season.

It always takes time for the current seasons form to settle in.

So What’s changed ?

The the majority of flat turf races will now start to include horses with no recent form. This makes reading a race much harder.

Other reasons why early season races should be treated with caution.

• The horses that have been running all season in both National Hunt and All-Weather races will potentially be ‘over the top’ or basically, they have had enough for the season.
• There will always be a well-rated horse in every race but not every race is worth a bet.
• Many horses that are running in the next 4-6 weeks will improve for the run.
• There will be many races with unrated horses that have yet to run this season.
• All-weather form does not always translate well to turf form and vice versa.

What should I do?

Be careful!

For the next month or so the flat turf season will be gaining momentum and there will be more and more relevant form for the system to devour and analyse as the days and weeks go by.

We ALWAYS suggest that at the start of a new season bets should be kept to a mimimum in order to protect your bankroll.

Weird things happen early in the season when there is little or no recent form.

Be selective and protect your bankroll

There is so much racing these days that you can afford to wait. Just because we rate every race does not measn we have to bet in every race.

One of the hardest things to do is to pick which ones of the many well rated horses there will inevitably be on a daily basis.

These are a few things you can do when making your decision whether to bet in a race or not.

Is the race adequately rated?

How many horses in the race are rated by TrackMate with preferably more than one recent outing?

We suggest that any race should have a TrackMate rating for at least 2/3 of the field.

Are any unrated horses prominent in the betting market?

Unrated horses will always be a danger. More so when well fancied in the market. If unrated horses are in the top 2 in the market we suggest no bet or caution with staking. Maybe a place higher portion of your stake to place.

Is your horse rated on recent form or older form?

It is always worth noting how long your horse has been off the track. If there are fitness doubts, be careful. There is no form like recent form.

What price is your selection in the market?

We rarely put our members off backing selections at big prices. They do win sometimes!

But…..

Not many horses win at odds of over 25/1 and even these are fairly rare and definitely hard to find!

When picking horses at long odds make sure you are happy to do so with the attached risk. They will not win very often.

We have had winners at all sorts of crazy prices as have our members but it doesn’t happen very often and in this day and age the market really is a true indication of your horse’s chance of winning.

The most profitable price range to be betting in is the 2/1 – 16/1 range and definitely to win and place if the place price allows it in terms of value. We try our hardest to make even money a minimum price on any bet we make.